New Energies, new possibilities

The analysis focuses on Europe and the US, given both have set explicit targets and have readily available data. It highlights that the disparity between project target volumes, expected volumes and those reaching Final Investment Decision (FID) is significant – threatening the pace of the energy transition.

The article, 'The energy transition: Where are we, really?', suggests corporate, public and private investors are hesitating about deploying capital due to softening business cases, technology cost-competitiveness, and project enabling and market forming policy support. This is underscored by a significant proportion of announced projects not yet reaching FID, amplifying the risk of project cancellation. For projects with longer lead times in specific technologies, such as offshore wind, the industry is quickly reaching the stage at which FID status projects will only come online after 2030 – impacting countries’ abilities to reach 2030 Paris Agreement commitments.

This divide is being driven by several factors. First, the challenging macroeconomic environment and fluctuating investment climates post-COVID are impacting the financing and prioritisation of projects. This is then compounded by long permitting procedures, grid reform challenges and carbon pricing fluctuations which delay the approval and deployment of new projects. Once projects do reach FID, a lack of skilled workers in green technologies is again slowing down the installation and maintenance of systems across the supply chain.

With decarbonisation technology projects experiencing significantly high fall-through rates, McKinsey’s analysis shows that Europe and the United States are falling short of announced targets – and therefore, swift action is required. In renewable power generation in the US, for example, more than 1000 green or blue hydrogen projects have been announced since 2015, but fewer than 15% have reached FID. In more established technologies such as solar, PV capacity additions are projected to stagnate after 2028 at 220 GW because of a lack of firm commitments – and of the announced capacity expected to come online before 2030, ~60% is still pending FID.

In Europe, the solar pipeline is not currently on track to meet 2030 capacity targets of 600 GW, with less than 390 GW of capacity planned to be online by the end of the decade. Of the ~114GW of additional capacity expected to come online by 2029, less than 20% has reached FID. There is of course the recognition that in some technologies, like PV, there is still an ability to accelerate deployment ahead of 2030 goals. Offshore wind has a gap of only 18 GW remaining to meet its overall 2030 target of 176 GW. But, again, of the announced 124 GW of offshore wind capacity in Europe, ~65% is still pending FID.

Humayun Tai, Senior Partner at McKinsey reflects on the findings: “Transforming the energy system hinges on the coordinated deployment of interlinked and interdependent technologies. A slowdown in deployment in one area of the energy system can cause cascading delays and hamper the growth of other technologies. This data confirms the reality gap that we believe the industry is experiencing, especially through inflation and system shocks alongside geopolitical uncertainty, which is seeing international supply chain tensions and trade disruptions. It further underscores the need for companies to reassess the current strategies to further drive the transition.”

The analysis highlights decarbonisation technologies such as carbon capture utilisation and storage (CCUS) and hydrogen are also facing bottlenecks, such as the need to build out entire value chains for technology deployment. CCUS project pipelines are full and ambitious with 60x and 9x the current CCUS capacity to be available in Europe and the US respectively by 2030. There is a pipeline of 148 milion tpy in Europe and 170 million tpy in US, but 44 million tpy and 132 million tpy of projects respectively are still lacking FID, underscoring a high risk of this not materialising.

Thomas Hundertmark, Senior Partner at McKinsey commented: “While the gap is widening, there is still a window of opportunity for governments and companies to deliver the growth needed while meeting their net zero ambitions. Doing so will require revaluation of existing strategies and regulatory regimes, many of which were devised to assume a different economic and policy landscape than exists today. With a clear view of the reality gap emerging, now is the time for stakeholders across the energy value chain to revisit decarbonisation plans to pioneer the next wave of progress. Our forthcoming Global Energy Perspective will demonstrate how far the gap needs to close as we look at different levels of technology deployment, policy, and incentives across the energy system.”

Michael Lewis, CEO Uniper, said: "Energy storage has always been a key element of a stable and efficient energy system, especially when it comes to balancing out seasonal fluctuations in demand. As the share of renewables in our energy supply increases, this aspect becomes even more crucial: only efficient storage solutions can ensure that energy is available when it is needed, especially in the context of decarbonisation. Hydrogen will play a key role in this: It combines security of supply and decarbonisation. In addition to transport networks, the successful introduction of hydrogen will above all require large-scale storage options. HPC Krummhörn is taking on a pioneering role here and fits seamlessly into our strategy. However, to ensure that it does not stop at the pilot plant stage, industry needs a reliable long-term regulatory framework based on market-based mechanisms and accompanying investment incentives."

"The Hydrogen Pilot Cavern Project in Krummhörn is a project that is attracting a lot of attention. You can count the number of locations worldwide where hydrogen is stored in caverns on one hand. Essential experience can now be gathered here that can pave the way for large-scale and commercial hydrogen storage. With this we create the basis for the flexible and reliable use of renewable energies, which is crucial for the success of the energy transition. This project can therefore play a key role in the ramp-up of the German hydrogen economy. As an energy location with its geographical proximity to the North Sea and the existing infrastructure, Lower Saxony is predestined to play a leading role in the transformation and energy transition. We still have a lot of plans here and want to become one of the centres of the European hydrogen economy. Together with private partners, we will be investing many millions of euros in this area over the next few years, thereby future proofing the location and thus jobs. Through projects like this, we are making a decisive contribution to the decarbonisation of our industry and at the same time strengthening the competitiveness of our economy in a global context," said Olaf Lies, Lower Saxony’s Minister for Economic Affairs, Transport, Construction and Digitalisation.

"Hydrogen storage will play a decisive role in the energy transition. A stable and reliable supply of Germany and Europe will be made possible especially by the construction and operation of large-volume hydrogen storage facilities. Our HPC Krummhörn project is laying the foundations for the development of storage solutions on a commercial scale and is thus part of the implementation of our ‘Greener Gases’ strategy. Investments in the development of hydrogen storage systems requires a clearly defined regulatory framework that incentivises initial investment. To achieve the objectives cost-efficiently and effectively, market-based storage fees should be coupled with a cost-regulated equalisation mechanism. Applying the principles of contracts for difference over a sufficiently long initial period in analogy to the development of the hydrogen core network would appear to make sense here," said Holger Kreetz, COO Uniper.

Residents living near the Krummhörn plant were invited already to the event on Sunday to find out more about the project and Uniper’s other activities. The event was met with great interest – about 300 people took up the offer to attend the lecture programme, explored the operating site or exchanged views directly with experts on topics related to the energy industry.

The hydrogen storage projects HPC Krummhörn in Lower Saxony and HyStorage in Bavaria, where a gas mixture of natural gas and hydrogen is stored in a pore storage facility, are part of the implementation of Uniper’s strategy and serve to prepare commercial storage projects for hydrogen.

The creation of the pilot cavern in Krummhörn with a geometric volume of approx. 3000 m3 was completed by using solution mining at an existing borehole at the Krummhörn site. With a total storage volume of almost 500 000 norm m3 of green hydrogen, the storage facility will be one of the first of its kind. Surface equipment for injection is set up. The gas tightness test on 24 September 2024, marks the start of the trial operation.

Next step, once approved, will be the initial gas filling and the operation of the demonstration plant with various injection and withdrawal cycles in the coming year. During the entire project period, equipment and materials are to be tested for hydrogen compatibility in a real environment and experience is to be gained about the quality of the stored hydrogen, thermodynamics and rock mechanics. Further technical components will therefore be installed on the operating site of the Krummhörn storage facility. This includes a hydrogen test facility that allows to determine the gas quality in various realistic injection and withdrawal scenarios and to test process technologies for processing the hydrogen. Hydrogen will be analysed to identify changes that might have occurred during the storage phase in the cavern. Furthermore, the moisture and possible other residues are removed from the hydrogen to make it available for the customers.

Uniper will invest a low double-digit million euro amount in the green future project. Within the framework of the hydrogen directive, the Lower Saxony Ministry for the Environment, Energy and Climate Protection is funding the project as a pilot and demonstration project of the hydrogen economy with €2.375 million.

The Krummhörn site is ideally suited because, among other things, it complements the nearby Uniper site in Wilhelmshaven with the 'Green Wilhelmshaven' project, offering the best conditions as an energy site and thus strengthening the importance of the region and Lower Saxony as an energy hub in Central Europe. The geographical location advantageously combines proximity to the windy North Sea with energy-technical connection to the gas and electricity grid that has existed for decades and, in the future, to the new hydrogen core network.